a thunderstorm happened this morning in gz.
so as the stock market.
Battered by Oil, Dow Touches Bear Territory
By MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM
Published: June 28, 2008
After eight brutal months on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average finally made it official: Blue-chip stocks have stumbled into bear territory.
A brief 155-point slide on Friday afternoon brought the decline in the Dow to 20 percent from its October peak, an ignominious figure that is generally regarded as marking the start of a bear market. The index ended down 107 points, a mere 0.1 percent above the threshold. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has not fallen quite as much.
The eight-month journey has roughly followed the twists of the subprime mortgage crisis, with a significant drop after the Bear Stearns collapse and a tantalizing rally when the economy appeared to recover slightly last month.
But in June, as the price of oil kept rising and the pain in the financial industry showed no signs of easing, the losses gained momentum. Many investors concluded that the economy was in worse shape than they had initially feared. This month, as the price of crude has gained about $13, the Dow has shed more than 1,000 points. The index closed at 11,346.51.
Few of the 30 companies in the Dow industrial index were spared Friday, reflecting growing concern among investors that the ongoing credit squeeze and record energy prices are taking a severe toll on industries throughout the economy. Procter & Gamble fell 2.2 percent. Boeing sank almost 1.9 percent. General Motors, which had plunged to its lowest level in decades on Thursday, eked out a small gain.
“The problem is, right now, things are too simple,” said Brian Gendreau, a strategist at ING Investment Management. “Whether it’s for airlines or automobiles or industry after industry, the market as a whole has become a play on energy, on oil.”
The broader stock market has fared better than the Dow, but only slightly. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, a broader measure of American stocks, fell 0.37 percent on Friday to close at 1,278.38. It is 18.3 percent off its October high.
Entering a bear market is a bleak milestone, if primarily a symbolic one. But it would make official what investors have known for months: The economy is in trouble, with little relief in sight.
Since the Dow reached its record high last October, all but three of the 30 stocks in the index have lost value. The biggest losers are General Motors (down more than 70 percent), Citigroup (down 64 percent) and the American International Group (down 60 percent).
Wal-Mart has gained almost 25 percent. Chevron Corporation and I.B.M. have posted modest gains.
“Three months ago, I could have said, well, we’re in a dual economy,” Mr. Gendreau said. “Some sectors like housing or finance aren’t doing well. Other sectors are doing fine. Now, a lot of those assumptions have been called into question. It’s all been driven by developments in a single commodity market.”
A similar pattern has popped up all over the world, where several central banks have warned about encroaching inflation, primarily as a result of the run-up in energy prices.
Nearly halfway through the year, stock-market investors the world over are nursing losses. Blue-chip indexes in France, Germany and other European countries are down more than 20 percent. Emerging markets in China and Vietnam have lost about half their value.
And there appears to be little on the horizon to stanch the losses.
“We still have worries about high oil prices, worries about inflation, in my mind still questions about the economy,” Richard Sparks, an analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research, said. “Even though we’ve seen consumer spending bump up with the retail checks, my question is what happens at the end of next month when there are no stimulus checks coming out any more.”
The last bear market, as measured by the broad S.& P. 500 index, stretched from March 2000 to October 2002. During that time, the S.& P. 500 fell almost 48 percent.
During the 20th century, the stock market went through three great bear runs: 1901-21, 1929-48 and 1965-82. Those periods coincided with geopolitical or economic turbulence — wars, the Depression, stagflation. Of course, all of those periods eventually gave way to great bull markets.
While stock prices have fallen this year, shares still are not all that cheap by historical standards. On Friday, the 500 stocks in the S.& P. 500 traded at an average of 21.2 times those companies’ earnings per share. Since 1990, that price-earnings ratio has averaged 24.3.
The Nasdaq Composite Index, heavily weighted with technology stocks, closed down 0.25 percent, or 5.74 points, at 2,315.63. Treasury bond yields fell, and the dollar weakened against the euro.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 17/32, to 99 8/32. Its yield, which moves in the opposite direction, fell to 3.97 percent, from 4.03 percent.
